5th of July (long post)

First off, I hope everyone had a great 4th of July yesterday! Many of my readers are from the United States, so you would have had the day off. This caused the market to be a bit slower than normal. Sunday night and monday morning had rather low volume than usual. This wasn’t ideal for my situation as I will be working dayshift at my job all week this week. The inconvenience in this comes from not being able to stay up all London session like I usually do. The other inconvenience comes from the surprises of work. I ended up working a 13 hour shift yesterday instead of my regular 8. This means I had to trade from my phone which I do not recommend anyone doing. Any chance I could get during the day I was going to my office computer to analyze the charts on tradingview.com. From there I would get an idea of my daily direction prediction. From there I would try and hone in on setups that were on the horizon. In the post I wrote last night about the two trades I was in, they have officially been closed. I actually opened a third position this morning when I woke up, it too is also closed. Oh and yesterday I said Happy Memorial day which I realized is totally incorrect. Happy Independence Day is what I meant!

Alright now to my favourite part, the trade breakdown. I bet you can guess at least two of the three pairs I traded last night. If you guessed USD/CAD and AUD/USD, you nailed it. Still my favourite pairs to trade. Let’s kick it off with USD/CAD.

I want to start showing more of the daily chart as well so I will start with that. usdcaddWhat stood out for me was this double bottom. It wasn’t exactly textbook but I could see there was some bullish divergence forming. It was also still above the upward sloping trend line. Let’s take it down to the intraday charts.

usdcad4The 4H chart showed excellent deceleration at the 1.2830 support. Bullish MACD was once again present. Let’s take it even further down to where I entered. The 1H chart had a really nice double bottom as well. I actually entered right then and there. The only problem was I was a bit early on my entry. Price actually broke down lower heading towards my stop. I was okay with this as I still believed price would turn up before hitting my stop. Good thing I worked all day yesterday as it prevented me from checking the charts for most of the day. Price did exactly as I thought it would as I was about 8 hours into my shift. I left a lot of money on the table with this trade. Mid shift is also when I entered AUD/USD short. usdcad1I won’t go as deep into my AUD/USD short because it is essentially the inverse of USD/CAD. But for anyone who really likes to trade candle shapes, I think you’ll enjoy this. I couldn’t pass this one up, the setup was just too good. So as my long USD/CAD position was retracing I figured it was beginning to make the move I thought it was going to make. My first thought was to check out what AUD/USD was doing.

Looking at the daily I honestly didn’t see anything special. I figured bearish MACD would be coming soon as I spotted bullish MACD on USD/CAD. audusddIt’s still above the 50 ema, it just broke up higher with a bullish candle, nothing really was saying short. When you’re in tune with the market though you can expect moves like these to come before they even shape up, this is why I love technicals. The 4H chart is what really made this picture clear as day. audusd4Price was heading up towards 0.7543, with not very much momentum. When I saw that first red 4H candle close at the top of the run like this I knew it was going to be a great short. This is what we call an evening star. A small red/green candle that closes at the top of a run signaling a move down may be coming. Pairing this with the bearish MACD everything was lining up. The 1H chart was even better.audusd1Look at the deceleration at the top of this run. Just no momentum left. Bearish MACD, picture perfect. I left a lot of money on the the table with this one as well. It really is so hard to try and catch the full move and traders should not be focusing on this.

So remember how I said I took a third position as well. I actually woke up at the perfect time to catch this one. I had my eyes on this when I entered that long USD/CAD position Sunday night but I didn’t find a good enough entry. Patience does pay off. eurusddEUR/USD was steadily climbing after the news of Brexit last week. I traded GBP/USD very similarly last week. Check it out here. So I was expecting a retiree up to the 0.5 Fib level, I was very hesitant to take it Sunday, so early Tuesday morning I found my entry. This is the daily with bearish MACD and a textbook retest of 0.5 Fib level. I’ll break down my entry on the 1H chart as well. eurusd1So taking a look at this, I could see there was a head and shoulders pattern forming on the 1H as well the bearish MACD on the daily, 4H and 1H. Price was also unable to break above the 0.5 Fib level, as well as 1.11523 resistance. It tried back and forth for 5-6 hours with sideways movement. When I realized USD/CAD was rallying I knew this was going to drop. Let alone the head and shoulders pattern made my decision a bit easier. I entered at 1.11501 with a 28 pip stop. I was taken out for 1.64% profit a couple hours later.

This feels weird to be honest, I’m one session into July and I’m already up over 4.5%. USD/CAD was 1.23% profit. AUD/USD was 2.25% profit. EUR/USD was 1.64% profit. I gotta say it is a great feeling to start out like this though. I hope some of you guys caught these moves last night and continue to catch some more pips as we head into July!

That’s all for now, Happy Trading!

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. These are trades I have taken and by the time you read this will have already come and gone. These are not signals and this is not a signal service. Trade at your own risk!

Published by MyFX Blog