Back to Even

So last nights trade didn’t go to plan haha. What I had thought was a good stacking of confluence quickly turned against me. This may be the quickest loss I have taken on a trade yet. I entered at 11:04pm and was taken out at 11:06pm for -1%. Honestly, I just had to laugh about it, I’d never seen anything like this yet. I’ll dive into my trade and why I think it went the way it did. So taking a look at the daily, overall this looked bearish to me. It just closed below support on the daily which previously held it three times. Take a look at the arrows, it had bounced off this area nicely in the past. What I was looking for was a retest of this line for me to take this short.gbpusd

Taking it down to the 1H now, this was what I saw as my entry point. Price came up nicely to the backside of the support line I had drawn in. Which also coincided with the daily pivot point. I liked this entry, my balance did not lol. gbpusd1

See where that red arrow is, thats exactly where I entered short. Only to see price quickly keep going up right through my stop loss. Looking at the chart though, there was three 1H candles that tried to break above and failed to do so. I found out the market had other plans. Maybe I didn’t stack enough confluence, maybe this was news, all I know is I had the wrong direction. Back to even for the week, and onto tonights session. Taking a quick look at the markets right now as the day has just closed, I think I want to start writing a daily prediction to see how accurate I can be. Again, this is not investment advice, this is purely for the blog. Taking a look at AUD/USD first off, starting on the weekly, looks to be like a high test on the 50ema. MACD divergence is also present, indicating a lower move may be on the horizon. Listening to Janet Yellen’s press conference today also made the USD sound bullish. She dropped hints of a possible rate hike in the near future, most likely sometime in the fall. At this time, the market will start to price in the expectation of a rate hike from now until fall. My prediction from here is a stronger USD and a weaker AUD.

Onto tonights session we go, but I will be proceeding with caution as there is quite a bit of news coming out. We have Australian employment change, and Australian unemployment rate. We also have Swiss Libor rate, as well as GBP official bank rate. So safe to say there will be plenty of volatility throughout the night.

Happy Trading!

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. These are trades I have taken and by the time you read this will have already come and gone. These are not signals and this is not a signal service. Trade at your own risk!

Published by MyFX Blog