“Lower price is coming. Higher price is coming for USD/CAD.” This is how I finished off my last blog post, predicting a lower price for AUD/USD and a higher price for USD/CAD. This analysis was what I was focusing on all last week as I was expecting some movement in the market to occur. I managed to get an entry for both AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The bad news though, they both ended up in a loss. It was really not what I was expecting, maybe my stop was too tight, maybe I was just too early to the move. Let’s take a look into the positions and see what we can find. Starting with AUD/USD, I was short from 0.7617 with a stop at 0.7665. 1jI2rfKRThere was Bearish MACD forming on the 4H chart with a double top at 0.7650. This was when I took it short. I knew about the Chinese news coming out later that night, little did I know this would be what took me out for -1%. The news was bullish which cause a surge in price which ended up hitting my stop. It’s unfortunate as we look at price today, I would’ve been taken out for +1.53% profit. I’m just glad my analysis was spot on.Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 8.55.21 PM

Of course you know by now my favourite thing to do is hedge USD/CAD with AUD/USD. Looking at the position right now, I don’t even know why I took this. It’s clear to me that this was an emotional trade. Taking a look at the 1H chart, I went long at the top of a bounce. K6KQwKKG.pngPrice was still below the 50ema and had not found a bottom yet. I saw the MACD and figured it had bottomed and a retrace must be in order, the market had other ideas. This is why going over your past trades is so important. Up until the writing of this, I honestly thought it was a good trade. It’s not until right now I realize it was not. My analysis was just so focused on seeing a bullish move from USD that I got caught up and impatient.

I guess I can write about the trade I took last night as well for a quick +1%. A textbook bullish Flag. Knowing your patterns and candlestick formations is such a huge bonus when you’re doing your technical analysis. There is a certain peace of mind when you are looking at the charts with an idea of exactly what you want to see. When I saw this bullish flag forming last night I knew exactly what to do. Let’s dive into it. So price ended up making that bottom I was looking for. You can see it double bottomed here on the 1H with Bullish MACD. I did not get in at the bottom there, however I spotted this bullish flag forming. Price made a new high, then started to pullback lower while maintaining this “flag-like” range. The probability of price breaking out of this range and continuing higher is very likely. As long as price doesn’t break below the support line at 1.2927 it will get squeezed out and continue higher. This is exactly what happened. I didn’t get the exact entry I wanted as I entered a bit too early when I saw price break above the 50ema on the 15min chart. However, price did exactly what I wanted and I woke up to a nice +1% profit.

bull

Tomorrow or the next day I will have a blog post about the trade I’m in right now. It wasn’t AUD/USD and it wasn’t USD/CAD either. Any guesses? It’s currently running at +2%, I’ll give an update later on!

Happy Trading!

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. These are trades I have taken and by the time you read this will have already come and gone. These are not signals and this is not a signal service. Trade at your own risk!

 

Published by MyFX Blog